It is interesting to compare this with the actual track of the storm as shown below.
Of the various forecast models, the NGFDL seemed to have a good fit as the storm approached North Carolina, while the GFS had a good fit during the later path of the storm. According to what I saw on TV, the model tracks were all pretty close together as the storm traveled up the east coast. Naturally, small changes in the track's position east or west made a big difference in storm surge at the local communities on the coast.
Note that 8/29/11 was the 6th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's landing on the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi.
